The Nigerian Voter is a series that seeks to understand the motivations that drive the voting decisions of Nigerians — why they vote, how they choose their candidates, why some have never voted, and their wildest stories around elections.

In this week’s edition of ‘The Nigerian Voter’, we’ll discuss voters’ fears of election violence ahead of the 2023 elections and how these fears are entrenched in 6 election cycles of violence since the start of democratic rule in 1999. 

Nigerians are experiencing worry, fear, and anxiety, with less than 12 days to the 2023 elections on February 25, 2023.

This has resulted in harassment and beating for supporting some candidates.

One such event was during the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi’s Lagos Rally, on February 11, 2023. Some Peter Obi supporters were attacked by thugs with machetes and other weapons,  on their way to the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS).

When this happened, there was a lot of public opinion on voters’ fears of election violence. Most of the accounts were terrified of harassment from thugs by the ruling All-Progressive Congress (APC).

Well, who can blame them? Since Nigeria’s independence in 1960, there has been no moment’s rest concerning election violence, with more than 1,800 deaths. And entering democratic rule in 1999 didn’t help either.

Let’s look into the statistics here:

History of voter election violence since 1999

There was widespread violence following allegations of fraud regarding the 1999 election that ushered in the presidency of Olusegun Obasanjo. It is estimated that about 80 people died. In 2003, at least 100 people were killed during incidents of violence triggered by federal and state elections. 

In 2007, over 300 people lost their lives due to electoral violence four years later, with pre-election violence claiming more than 70 lives.

Again, in 2011, post-election violence led to the death of at least 800 people over three days of rioting in 12 states across northern Nigeria — the worst case so far in the country’s political history.

“The violence began with widespread protests by supporters of the main opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim from the Congress for Progressive Change, following the re-election of incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the Niger Delta in the south, who was the candidate for the ruling People’s Democratic Party,” noted Human Rights Watch.

During and after the general elections in 2015, more than 100 people lost their lives, according to the International Crisis Group. And finally, the European Union Election Observation Mission said about 150 people were killed due to violence linked to the last national elections of 2019.

Sadly, citizens are not the only ones that suffer from election violence. A closer look at the figures shows that election officials from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

A Trend of Election Violence Against Election Officials (2019-2022)

In November 2022, the electoral commission said it had recorded 50 attacks in 15 of the country’s 36 states and the capital since 2019. It may probably have been more, as data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), suggests that might be an estimate.

According to data from ACLED represented by Al Jazeera in December 2022, there have been more than 100 attacks associated with elections since the last elections in 2019. At least 67 of them were recorded on non-election days between January 2019 and December 2022.

But why is there election violence?

There are many reasons why election violence has risen to an all-time high since the start of Nigeria’s democracy. Some of them are:

To gain wealth and profit

Firstly, politics is the most profitable sector in Nigeria. And the stakes are extremely high. Holding a position in government holds the key to power, which in turn provides access to the country’s wealth. Winners gain all, and losers are sometimes left with nothing, including their followers, investment and integrity.

The result is that political actors often prepare strategies to achieve their objectives that can include violence.

Lack of strong state institutions

Those involved in electoral governance are vulnerable to coercion or manipulation. On numerous occasions in past elections, there have been allegations of infractions committed by officials of the electoral body or security agencies in favour of one party or another. This, in turn, has led to some political actors enlisting the support of armed non-state groups. These groups sometimes operate in conflict with state institutions and sometimes compete with them. In some instances, there is cooperation.

The frustration of Nigerian citizens

Many Nigerians are frustrated by the economic, social and political situation in the country. People are frustrated by poverty, inequality, perceived injustice, illiteracy, youth unemployment, hunger, corruption, human rights abuse and insecurity.

Added to this is the lack of sensitivity and inadequate responses of the government.

This is a major reason behind the increase in civil and militant protests and criminal violence in Nigeria.

What is the solution to electoral violence?

Here are some solutions that we feel are necessary to curb electoral violence:

More effort is also needed to build the capacity of relevant institutions. Two key ones stand out: the electoral and security agencies.

Nigeria’s electoral body (INEC) plays an important role in reducing electoral violence. The regulation of party activities and the conduct of elections should be consistent with the country’s laws and directives. And its actions should be transparent. This will strengthen stakeholders’ confidence in the institution and process of the elections.

Election security should be demilitarised. While policing can feature the armed forces in supporting roles, it is important to balance their role during elections with rule of law and respect for human rights. Suspects should be arrested, prosecuted and served justice (devoid of political influence) after a fair hearing.

Nigeria has relevant laws to curb electoral violence. The implementation and enforcement of these laws should be a priority.

INEC should also promote public education using both traditional and new media-based advocacy.

Political parties, civil society groups and media also play important roles in influencing public opinion and mobilising people. Political parties should check, and when necessary condemn and sanction their members and followers engaged in electoral violence. Civil society groups should demand greater accountability and transparency of the election process as well as educate and mobilise the public.

The Nigerian Voter is a series that seeks to understand the motivations that drive the voting decisions of Nigerians — why they vote, how they choose their candidates, why some have never voted, and their wildest stories around elections.

In today’s edition, Citizen discusses the various factors that could affect the choice of a Nigerian Voter as they prepare to come to the polls in February 2023.

With Nigerian voters being only 31 days shy from casting their votes in February 2023, a lot of activity has been going on from key players in the political scene. 

This ranges from party defections to allegations against candidates and so much more. And these activities have a very high chance of determining who a voter would support during an election. 

However, some of these factors play a key role in voter decisions. These are:

Ethnicity 

There are 18 candidates vying for the presidency, and three of them are from the major ethnic groups in Nigeria. 

Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) from the North, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the South-West, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) from the East. 

Despite the provision given by law which allows individuals of all tribes to contest for elections, there has been controversy since 1999 that presidential power should rotate every eight years between the northern and southern parts of the country.

This is why many individuals and groups from the north and the south agree that President Muhammadu Buhari must be succeeded by someone from the south.

However, a South-Eastern presidency (which could be made likely with Obi winning the elections) has been a source of controversy amongst ethnic tribes. 

This is largely because the zone is clamouring to produce its first-ever president in Nigeria. 

Religion 

Religion, like ethnicity, has always been a very key factor in voter participation. Islam and Christianity are the two biggest religions in Nigeria, with 53.5% of Nigerians being Muslim and 45.9% being Christian respectively. 

Since 1999 there has also been an unwritten law to ensure that the president and the vice president do not share the same religion. While the north is predominantly Muslim, the south is predominantly Christian. 

But that may change if this man comes along.

The BAT

In July 2022, Bola Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, chose Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate. 

As expected, many Nigerians and groups, including the Christian Association of Nigeria, strongly condemned the ticket.

But that didn’t stop the BAT, as he is still proudly campaigning on a Muslim-Muslim ticket. 

The rise of a ‘third force’

Until 2015, the only strong contenders for the presidency were the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Their winning streak ended when their candidate (Goodluck Jonathan) lost the 2015 elections to President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC. 

In 2023, things are looking to change with the rise of a third-party force from the Labour Party (LP). This is all due to its presidential candidate, Peter Obi. 

Already he has managed to create a strong Obidient movement across the country, as well as become a favourite for the elections with more than four opinion polls in his favour. 

Vote-buying

In a country with over 63% of its population being multidimensionally poor, anyone is looking for a means to hustle and make money. Even if it means selling their votes to do it. 

However, there are promises of reduction in the act. 

The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmoud Yakubu, promised Nigerians that party agents caught buying votes during the 2023 elections would be rightfully punished in accordance with the Electoral Act. 

The Nigerian Voter is a series that seeks to understand the motivations that drive the voting decisions of Nigerians — why they vote, how they choose their candidates, why some have never voted, and their wildest stories around elections.

This week’s subject of The Nigerian Voter is Ezechukwu*, a retiree in his early sixties who has voted seven times from 1993 to 2019 and has been utterly disappointed by all the candidates he ever voted for. 

Have you ever voted?

Seven times, in fact. I voted in 1993 — the M.K.O. Abiola election — 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019.

Wow. What was your first experience like?

I voted for Abiola in 1993 because he seemed to be very prepared. That man travelled around regions helping people and assisting communities. He was also able to connect with Nigerians through his love of football — I believe he was the head of the Nigerian Olympics committee at the time. He also awarded scholarships to university students. I believe these were part of the things that made him popular. 

It’s not a surprise he won that election, he even won his opponent Bashir Tofa’s local government area in Kano. There was no internet facility for that election, it was tube wires that very few people had. Even though Abiola and his running mate were Muslims, people loved them. 

Unfortunately, General Ibrahim Babangida  — the Head of State at the time — annulled the election. That was even the first time I ever heard the word “annulled.” I can remember the nationwide protests that happened in my area and all over Nigeria because the hopes of many were dashed. Honestly, that’s the only free and fair election I ever had. 

Did things change in 1999?

There was a clamour for democratic rule at that time. I voted for Olusegun Obasanjo of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) because I believed he’d be able to lead Nigeria right due to his belief in the democratic system and past military experience. I also believed in democracy so much because that’s what books and public speakers taught us to believe. But then again, I was disappointed. The level of corruption during Obasanjo’s time was too much.

But I voted for him again in 2003. I wanted to give him a second chance, but I think the man just made up his mind to be worse than his military counterparts in civilian rule. 

Did you get a fresh start in 2007?

I voted for Yar’Adua because he seemed to be a better civilian president, but sadly didn’t live long enough. He implemented some things I liked such as the Niger Delta peace treaty. It’s such a shame he died.

I felt Jonathan would carry on the good work of Yar’Adua and voted for him in 2011. I can remember standing in the sun just to vote and yet, I was disappointed when he came into power with more corruption. All these politicians are just devils. 

I voted for Buhari in the 2015 elections. It was a time of high insecurity and I was scared to go out to vote at first because I was afraid of getting shot. Looking back now, I wish I didn’t vote because I now realise there was a lot of deceit and falsehood in that election. So many beautiful promises, especially of the dollar to a naira exchange rate, never got fulfilled.

Did that change anything for 2019?

I still voted for the Buhari government thinking things could improve. In fact, the rain beat my wife and I just because we wanted to exercise our right to vote. But I’m not seeing any improvements still. The poor state of security and infrastructure hasn’t changed. I remember traveling from Lagos to Makurdi in my younger days but that kind of trip is a death wish now. 

I hate the way elections are intriguing, with songs and different stories and rivalries. But once you vote, that person will be sure to disappoint. And this is what’ll still happen with those three frontrunners for 2023 election. Any of them that gets into power will surely disappoint.

How are you so sure about that?

I’ve voted in seven elections in my lifetime, and with the exception of Yar’Adua, all of them disappointed. They all said that Nigeria would be better but it still isn’t. I’m definitely not voting for any of the candidates come 2023 because I don’t want to be disappointed again.

Which election is your favourite?

It’s definitely the 1993 election, and this was because of the Option A4 form. I believe if we continued to use this, it would have brought about a very great system of governance. 

What’s the Option A4 form?

Before you campaign as a presidential candidate, the Option A4 form would be passed round your ward for indigenes to vote for you, then your local government area, then your state and even your political party before you finally kickstart national campaigns. But all these levels must vote for you or approve of you running for president using the Option A4 form before you can proceed to the next stage. That system makes sure whoever is campaigning is capable of the job and has a good track record. But now, any godfather can just step in and put his preferred candidate on the ballot.

What’s your least favourite thing about the electoral process?

Vote-buying. I hate the way politicians can buy off a whole village to win an election. It’s largely due to the high level of poverty. I also hate the use of thugs to harass you into voting. I really hate it.

What would you like the next government to change about Nigeria? 

First of all, I’d like for the government to be objective. For instance, I know Buhari doesn’t interfere with elections — PDP wouldn’t have won in Osun State. The next president should also be that way. Let the campaigns run their course. 

I’d also like the naira to dollar exchange rate to change, and I want to feel safe travelling from one state to another without issues. The next government should try and be sincere about the real state of insecurity in Nigeria. 

If the next government can put aside its self-interest, the country will be a better place.