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presidential candidate | Zikoko!
  • Nigeria’s Voting Pattern Gives Peter Obi a One-Sixth Chance of Winning

     [countdown date=”Feb 25, 2023 7:00:00″]

    The 2023 elections in three days will go down as one of Nigeria’s most important historical events.

    In the days leading up to the elections, we’ve experienced many interesting curves: 

    • For the first time, there’s a third force party serving as a threat to contenders from the two major political parties;
    • The youths are the highest proportion of registered voters at 39.5%;
    • Voters will be accredited not manually but with technology using the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS).

    Out of anticipation, several polls have been published to predict the winner of the 2023 presidential election. 

    Using data from the voter turnout and the voting patterns of previous elections since 1999, a group of private observers; John Analoh, Ayomide Gbadegesin and Femi Labiyi, have predicted six possible outcomes for the upcoming elections.

    The winner will be decided after a run-off 

    A run-off means a winner will be decided after two rounds of voting. This would happen if neither candidate got the majority votes, i.e. 25% of votes in 24 states. And this is very likely because each presidential candidate is a powerhouse in their own right.

    Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, is expected to have many votes from the South-East, South-South and North-Central states. But Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate for the All Progressives Party (APC), may win critical states like Kaduna, Borno and Kano. 

    Also, the presidential candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, is expected to win or come a close second in many states and even in the South-South regions. 

    So, while Bola Tinubu may get the most votes, he might be unable to pull off 25 per cent in 24 states. 

    Atiku Abubakar wins the election

    For this outcome, although Peter Obi might have the most votes in the South-East. Atiku would get many votes from states in the South-South region, especially in Delta state. 

    Also, while the North-West and Noth-East regions vote in favour of Bola Tinubu, Atiku would win in APC powerhouses like Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara. This would ultimately propel him to victory.

    Bola Tinubu wins the election

    In this scenario, Tinubu wins comfortably in the South-West region and is voted favourably for in the North-East and North-West regions, particularly in Kano, Kebbi, and Kaduna.

    And although Peter Obi might perform well in the South-East, Atiku is also expected to pull strong figures from the South-south region.

    Atiku Abubakar win the election

    If Atiku does exceptionally well in South-south regions and APC strongholds like Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara. In that case, he could have the majority vote in 24 states.  

    Bola Tinubu wins the elections

    It’s also probable that while Tinubu does a clean sweep in the South-west, he would also come a close second in the South-south, northeast and north-west regions. This would very easily push him to victory.

    Peter Obi wins the elections

    In this scenario, the elections will end with the third-force candidate, Peter Obi taking the coveted prize. 

    For this to happen, Rabiu Kwankwaso, presidential candidate for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), gets good numbers in the North-West and some parts of the North-east region. And Peter Obi wins Lagos and gets the majority votes in the North-Central.  

    While we can’t say who the winner will be, the one thing that can be confirmed is that the 2023 elections will shape Nigeria’s future.

  • Why a Presidential Candidate Can Be Disqualified in Nigeria

    It’s one month until the presidential election. Almost everyone’s giddy about the prospect of choosing Nigeria’s next President. 

    So it’s fascinating to learn that the two leading parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have commenced court proceedings seeking the disqualification of their opposing principals. 

    This led us to ask, what needs to happen for a candidate to be disqualified from contesting for president? But, before we answer that, let’s see if something like this has happened.

    Is this the first time this is happening?

    No. In the lead-up to the 2015 presidential election, the current president Muhammadu Buhari was at the centre of a certificate scandal

    Section 131 of the Nigerian Constitution covers the qualifications for becoming President

    Subsection (d) reads, “A person shall be qualified to the office of President if he has been educated up to at least school certificate level or its equivalent.” The problem was, despite Buhari’s claim at the time that his school leaving certificate (WAEC) was with the military, they initially denied having it. After much back and forth, Buhari’s academic records were released to the public. However, their authenticity remains an open question.

    What are eligibility requirements to become president?

    The essential requirement needed to be President, not stated in the Constitution or the Electoral Act is money. Lots of it.

    Beyond being a joyful spender, section 131 of the Constitution provides four personal requirements, namely;

    1. You must be a Nigerian citizen by birth
    2. You must be at least 40 years old
    3. You must belong in a political party and sponsored to the office of the President
    4. You must be educated up to at least school certificate level or its equivalent

    So what needs to happen to be disqualified from becoming president?

    Section 137 of the Constitution provides grounds for disqualification to the office of President. Unlike the qualification requirements, this one’s a longer list. A person shall not be qualified for office of the president if they;

    1. Have dual citizenship, although this is subject to the provisions of Section 28 of the Constitution.
    2. Served two terms as President already which excludes Buhari and former president Olusegun Obasanjo.
    3. Have been declared to be a lunatic or of unsound mind by any law in Nigeria. Sounds fair. Nigeria’s hard enough as it is and we don’t want to worsen things by electing a mentally unfit person.
    4. Are under a death sentence, or sentenced to prison for fraud. 
    5. Are convicted of fraud or dishonesty less than ten years before the election date.
    6. Have been declared bankrupt. Because someone who can’t manage their own affairs shouldn’t be trusted to manage that of a country.
    7. Haven’t resigned from any public office at least 30 days before the election.
    8. Belong in a secret society. Because why?
    9. Have been indicted for embezzlement or fraud by a judicial commission or tribunal.
    10. Present a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

    How likely is it for anyone to be disqualified at this point?

    There have been allegations of corruption and forgery levelled against the top two parties both within and outside. Aspirants have the right to challenge the results of primaries as provided in Section 29 of the Electoral Act.  

    However, INEC, as an umpire, has limits on how it can intervene. For example, in 2019, a federal high court in Abuja in a case between the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in Kogi State and INEC, ruled against INEC saying it had no power to disqualify a candidate that its party has cleared. 

    There’s good reason to believe that despite court cases springing up this late, the presidential candidates may still have to slug it out at the polls on February 25. 

    Ultimately, the people will pass judgment with their ballots.

    We write the news and track the 2023 elections for citizens by citizens in our weekly newsletter, Game of Votes. Make the subscription of a lifetime here.